They’re doing an amazing job of bringing them out of the woodwork.
We couldn’t help thinking of it when the women’s draw came out and three of the Top Ten were missing. In terms of utility theory, the more required events there are, the less strong the actual requirements — for example, if there were one required event, and you miss it, you earn 0% of required event points. If there are five events, and you miss one, your possible required events points are reduced by perhaps as much as 20%. If there are 12 required events, and you miss one, you can potentially still earn 92% of required event points (or even more if the event is one of the smaller ones). So, in theory, we should see more top women at Indian Wells than top men.
Despite utility theory, the men’s field at this event features the entire Top Twenty, and 29 of the Top Thirty — the only guy missing is Nicolas Almagro. The only other Top Fifty player missing is Carlos Moya (is there something about Spaniards that pushes them out of the event?) — and he isn’t likely to be Top Fifty after this. Roger Federer is willing to risk his back here. Andy Murray is out of the bed where he tried to recover from a bad ankle and a fatigue problem. Nikolay Davydenko has come back after missing weeks. Fernando Verdasco will finally risk the leg that kept him out of Davis Cup. You name it, they’re here.
It almost seems silly to list the seeds; they’re all here, except for Almagro, and they’re in rankings order, so you could just read down the rankings list. We’ll list them in the shortest possible form. The #1 seed is of course Rafael Nadal, with Roger Federer #2, defending champion Novak Djokovic #3, Andy Murray #4, Nikolay Davydenko #5, Juan Martin del Potro #6 despite a weak record at required events, Andy Roddick #7, Gilles Simon #8, Gael Monfils #9, Fernando Verdasco #10, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga #11, David Ferrer #12, James Blake #13, David Nalbandian #14, Tommy Robredo #15, Stanislas Wawrinka #16, Fernando Verdasco #17, Radek Stepanek #18, Marin Cilic #19, last year’s finalist Mardy Fish #20, Tomas Berdych #21, Igor Andreev #22, Richard Gasquet #23, Marat Safin #24, Robin Soderling #25, Dmitry Tursunov #26, Ivo Karlovic #27, Mario Ancic #28, Rainer Schuettler #29, Jurgen Melzer #30, Nicolas Kiefer #31, and Paul-Henri Mathieu taking advantage of Almagro’s absence to earn the #32 seed.
All the seeds have byes, of course, but several could be tested in the early going. Berdych will have to open against either Mikhail Youzhny or Victor Troicki. Eduardo Schwank is likely to await Safin. Schuettler’s first opponent could be countryman Tommy Haas. Stepanek will have to deal with Sam Querrey (unless Guillermo Canas suddenly returns to life). Wawrinka will open against either Andreas Seppi or fast-recovering Juan Ignacio Chela. Mardy Fish, who has a higher fraction of his points on the line than any other seed, will face either Victor Hanescu or Jeremy Chardy. Ancic’s first opponent will be either countryman Ivan Ljubicic or Kei Nishikori. Ernests Gulbis could await Andreev — though that’s a second round match, and Gulbis has yet to win one of those this year, so maybe Andreev will be OK. Davydenko will return to action against either Julien Benneteau or Philipp Kohlschreiber. Feliciano Lopez and Michael Llodra will face off for the chance to take on Gasquet. Jarkko Nieminen is in Blake’s part of the draw. And Gonzalez is in line to face Lleyton Hewitt, though the word that Hewitt’s hip is acting up makes that a bit less likely.
The Rankings
It will probably not surprise you to learn that we will have no movement at the top of the rankings this week; no matter what happens at Indian Wells, Rafael Nadal will have more than a 2000 point lead on Roger Federer, and Federer will have more than a thousand point lead on the #3 player.
We phrased that very carefully. It is just barely possible that we could have a new #3. We show Novak Djokovic with a 990 point lead in safe points over Andy Murray. This event is worth a thousand points. A first round loss earns a player ten points. So, if Djokovic loses his opener, and Murray wins Indian Wells, they are tied at 8250 points. If Djokovic doesn’t play, then Murray theoretically could move up to #3.
Of course, the odds of that are very slight. But if Murray can do well this week, he’ll have a better shot at earning the #3 spot at Miami or in the clay season.
The Big Four are certain to remain the Big Four. Murray will have at least a 1500 point lead over the #5 player.
And, yes, we could have a new #5, though it’s not at all likely. Nikolay Davydenko currently holds the spot, and has about a 450 point lead in safe points over Juan Martin del Potro. That means that Del Potro could pass him with a final if Davydenko loses fairly early. In addition, Andy Roddick or Gilles Simon could pass him with a title. In practice, Davydenko is probably safe for now — but Miami comes off in four weeks.
It appears certain that Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, Murray, Davydenko, del Potro, Roddick, and Simon will be Top Ten when this is over. Gael Monfils also appears to be just about set. That leaves #10 Fernando Verdasco as the only guy who is really under threat. He leads Jo-Wilfried Tsonga by only about 100 points; David Ferrer is 200 behind that, and James Blake another 200 behind that. Tsonga is a strong threat to pass Verdasco, and the others have outside chances.
Interestingly, of the current Top Twenty, only one is not Top Twenty in safe points: Mardy Fish, whose final here last year put him back on the map, is a mere #28 in safe points, and could end up below #30 if he loses early. That means Nicolas Almagro is #20 in safe points — but, because he isn’t playing, he’s not likely to end up with the #20 spot. Tomas Berdych, Igor Andreev, and Marat Safin are probably the best candidates to move up.
It’s strange to realize that no one currently ranked between #25 and #50 has as much as fourth round points to defend. Considering that current #25 Safin leads current #50 Serra by only about 750 points, that means that there is likely to be a lot of movement in that range. The guys who are in trouble are those who are below #50 but have fourth round or better points to defend. Most of them are big names: Tommy Haas has quarterfinalist points coming off, and Lleyton Hewitt, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Guillermo Canas, Ivan Ljubicic, and Hyung-Taik Lee have fourth round points. All save Ferrero are in the draw (yet another Spaniard missing!); few are playing particularly well. We may well see several of them take big falls — Ferrero we know can kiss the Top Hundred goodbye.
Source: http://www.tennisnews.com/exclusive.php?pID=27606
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